5km ARW WRF Model Description

The Weather and Research Forecast Model (WRF) is a sister model to the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model (HWRF). The WRF is the latest numerical program model to be adopted by the National Weather Service as well as the U.S. military and private meteorological services. There are two distinct varieties of this model. The advanced research version known as ARW is a very high resolution model used to find new ways to improve accuracy of hurricane forecasting.

The WRF model is the next generation of weather computer models. Due to its ability to resolve small-scale weather data, it has shown great results when forecasting local weather events such as accurate locations of sea breeze fronts and thunderstorms in addition to very accurate forecast positions of hurricanes.

Since the HWRF model first became operational in 2007, it has shown great promise in fully addressing the intensity, structure and rainfall forecasts in addition to advancing wave and storm surge forecasts.

Remember that these are mathematical models with varying initial assumptions. Thus, different models produce different final results. They do not necessarily reflect the "official" hurricane track issued by the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters review all of the model data but use their own experience and scientific expertise to arrive at a final forecast.